Three major events took place on, at, or around Google last week any one
of which could radically change the company and its relationships with
its users, advertisers, and ad delivery partners. Two of the events will
have long lasting effects - the first being Google's look and operation
and the second directly affecting the public's perception of Google as a
trustworthy company.
Chronologically, the events started last Monday with the introduction of
the new-look and feel of Google Universal. The same day, Google began
the process of cleaning up its paid advertising program AdWords by
terminating thousands of poorly performing "Made For AdSense" sites, a
process that seemed to pick up speed as the week progressed. The week
closed with the premature leak of information from the Fair Isaac
Corporation's ongoing study of billable clíck-fraud rates.
The last event, the leak of preliminary information from Fair Isaac, is
likely the best place to begin an explanation because it (the tone of
the report) is arguably the primary causal reason for the other two. It
is as if Google suddenly understands the depth of the public relations
problems it is going to be facing going into the second half of 2007 and
is making very public moves to deal with the root causes of those
problems.
Google's Greatest Problem
Early last Friday morning a press release left the offices of the Fair
Isaac Corporation. The press release stated that Fair Isaac had been
conducting a study on billable clíck fraud rates at Google and had found
10 – 15 % of all billed clicks to a small sampling of accounts had
stemmed from invalid activity. Naturally both the tech and mainstream
media made an enormous issue of the news with virtually every important
business or tech section mentioning the story.
By Saturday, the dust had settled and writers began taking a second,
less euphoric look at the story. As Kevin Newcomb in Search Engine Watch
wrote,
"Media reports (including Search Engine Watch's) saying Fair Isaac Corp.
(FIC) reported industry-wide clíck fraud at 10 to 15 percent are not
accurate. FIC decided to put out a press release and speak at its user
conference about data that was extremely preliminary, based on a small
sample size, and not statistically significant."
What happened and why was it an important event?
The significance of the media's reaction to the Fair Isaac report is the
media's reaction itself. Within minutes of the release being issued,
stories began appearing in Associated Press, Information Week, the Wall
St. Journal and in other major publications. Though Kevin is correct in
chastising himself and his colleagues (including me) for jumping the gun
on the story, that so many of us feel there is a story about clíck fraud
is in itself the story.
Readers have to understand how difficult it is for reporters to write
about clíck fraud as there is very little corroborating evidence outside
the information we ferret out of advertisers who complain to us about
their experiences. Google and Yahoo are not known to be forthcoming with
information surrounding their pay-per-click programs. Journalists rely
on third-parties such as Clíck Forensics, ClickFacts other analytic
companies (in this case, Fair Isaac) to supply us with information which
in turn we supply to you the readers.
The numbers that came out of the Fair Isaac press release generally jive
with those of Clíck Forensics and the index maintained by the Clíck
Fraud Network which estimated a 14.8% clíck fraud rate at the end of the
first quarter of 2007. Hundreds of other writers simultaneously
experienced the same low-watt, light-bulb moment I did, hoping that Fair
Isaac had provided a solid set of numbers to speculate from.
Unfortunately, as Kevin wrote, it was simply speculation but, the event
did point out a gaping hole in Google's corporate awning. The press is
clearly prepared to expect a 10 – 15% clíck fraud rate, as evidenced by
the breakneck speed the story made from wire to writing to print.
Perhaps that is the biggest reason for the second important event from
last week.
Google to Close Low-Yield MFA Accounts
Google is sending closure notices to owners of low conversion "Made For
AdSense" (MFA) sites. On Friday afternoon, reports that Google issued
polite emails informing several owners of MFA type sites that their
AdSense accounts are going to be terminated on June 1 began surfacing at
WebmasterWorld.
Google is targeting a large group of people who use the AdSense system
to scam monëy from advertisers. Some reports have suggested Google is
going after the paid-search arbitrage community though others point out
that though many (if not most) arbitragers are going to be affected they
themselves were not the actual issue Google is dealing with.
Google is moving to close what are called "MFA" sites. Examples of MFA
sites include parked domains, misspellings and faux-search engines, all
of which tend to have AdSense advertising on them. When users go to or
are somehow driven to those sites, those who clíck on the ads make the
site owner (and Google) a little monëy. Though clicks on these sites
might only be worth 5 – 10 cents, the Internet allows MFA site owners to
run businesses based on huge volumes of purchased and misdirected
visitors. On average, MFA site owners make a few hundred per month on
their sites though in some cases, site owners can be making tens of
thousands of dollars per month.
Obviously, this use of the AdWords and AdSense programs were far
healthier for the MFA site owners (and Google's bottom line), than they
were for advertisers or Internet users. For most, the halcyon days of
MFA are over and those webmasters will have to adapt to the new rules
surrounding ad distribution through the AdSense program.
As for Google, if cleaning up the system makes advertisers more
comfortable over the long-run, it makes far more sense for Google to
forgo what is to them a relatively minor revenue source in order to
create a more stable advertising environment. Assuming Google
successfully removes MFA sites from its system, it will have moved a
long way towards cleaning up a highly lucrative arena for clíck fraud.
Google Universal
The third and perhaps most interesting thing Google did last week was
the introduction of the Google Universal results. In a nutshell, Google
Universal is about tying many of the multiple search indexes Google
maintains into one coherent set of results.
Google literally has over a dozen types of search result available,
depending on the type of search each user conducts. Google Universal is
their first major attempt to bind all search types into an overarching
set of results.
A good contemporary example might be the recent recall of pet foods
across North America . This is a topic of extreme interest to pet
owners, one that has received a high level of attention from news,
governmental and consumer organizations. A search conducted for "pet
food recall" might bring up results from general search, news, YouTube
videos, radio reports, shopping search results, etc... Under Google's
old system, a user would have to perform specialty searches to find
information kept outside of Google's general search results. Google
Universal should change that by bringing other file formats into what
the user will perceive as the general search results.
Google Universal is probably the biggest change made to Google results
since the introduction of paid advertising five years ago. The move was
made by Google to present a wider array of file types to users. It is a
logical change that will have sweeping effects throughout the search
marketing industry. SiteProNews will carry fuller coverage of Google
Universal later this week.
Last week was one of the most significant and startling weeks in
Google's history. From an outsider's perspective, it appears Google is
taking serious action to improve its services on several fronts. Its
greatest weakness is the specter of clíck fraud, as evidenced by the
speed at which the media bit the hook dangled by the Fair Isaac press
release. It is prepared to forgo revenues in order to clean up its
system and is working to integrate richer media into its general search
results. Any one of the three stories could have provided months worth
of material for writers in the search marketing space. Together, they
provide a clearer indication of Google's greatest fears and best
intentions. This is likely to be another interesting week watching
Google.
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